ERCOT’s large-load interconnection queue has reached 226 GW, up from 63 GW at the end of 2024, with roughly 77% of the volume tied to data center projects targeting connection by 2030. Q1 2026 alone brought 198 GW of new large-load applications, with 86 GW currently under active review by the grid operator. The 86 GW under review is roughly equivalent to ERCOT’s all-time peak system load.
The supply side is not keeping pace. ERCOT added about 23 GW of new generation across 2024 and 2025 combined, with another 9 GW scheduled to come online in early 2026. The generator interconnection queue itself sits at roughly 432 GW, dominated by solar and energy storage at about 77% of the pipeline, but only a fraction of those projects clear interconnection and financing on the timelines data center developers are requesting.
Phantom-load problem moves to center stage
ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission of Texas have flagged that a meaningful share of large-load requests are speculative or duplicative, with the same data center campus filing parallel interconnection requests across multiple substations to preserve optionality. Without a way to separate real projects from placeholders, transmission planners are working from a queue that may overstate near-term demand by a wide margin while still leaving real shortfalls uncovered.
Governor Abbott signed legislation in July 2025 directing the PUC to develop transparency requirements for large-load customers, including disclosure obligations and queue-position discipline. The PUC has until December 2026 to finish the rulemaking. ERCOT has separately moved to revise its large-load interconnection process, layering on financial commitment requirements and milestone discipline meant to flush out non-serious requests.
Why it matters
For the supply-chain framing, three things stand out.
First, ERCOT is now the clearest US window into how fast hyperscaler load growth is outrunning generation interconnection. The mismatch between a 226 GW load queue and 23 GW of recent additions is the actionable number, not the headline queue size.
Second, the storage build-out inside ERCOT remains a structural beneficiary. With 77% of the generation queue in solar and storage, and gas additions still constrained by turbine lead times, battery storage is the marginal capacity tool most likely to actually connect on a 2026-2028 timeline. That continues to pull on US-strategic battery supply, regardless of whether EV demand surprises in either direction.
Third, the December 2026 PUC deadline is the policy date worth tracking. Whatever transparency and queue-discipline framework lands in Texas will shape how other ISOs, PJM and MISO especially, approach their own large-load problems. The rule design matters more than the headline.
Source: Latitude Media coverage of ERCOT’s December 2025 large-load update, with Q1 2026 figures cited via ERCOT and Ascend Analytics interconnection reporting.