Commerce’s Monday July 13, 2026 publication of the anti-dumping finals on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos closed the second of the two trade-case publications that have been dated on the post-July-4 calendar. The finals tracked the April 2026 preliminaries inside a 2 to 4 percentage-point band across the three-country stack, with the top of each range still reflecting adverse facts available applied to non-cooperative respondents. Layered on top of the July 6 CVD finals, the combined cash-deposit rate collected at the port on any post-July-4 shipment is now fixed. The pricing question that the transferability desks priced through Friday’s close and that the tax-equity primary market did not price is now the only question left open into the July 20 to 24 syndication window.
What the AD finals actually printed
The India finals landed at 22 to 84 percent, a 1 to 3 percentage-point tightening at the top of the range relative to the 21 to 87 percent preliminary. The Indonesia finals landed at 37 to 216 percent, roughly 2 to 3 points wider at the bottom and 3 points tighter at the top relative to the 35 to 219 percent preliminary. The Laos finals landed at 78 to 268 percent, with the tightening of 3 percentage points at the top of the range concentrated on two named respondents that submitted supplemental questionnaire responses inside the April 30 verification window. The adverse-facts rate remains the operative constraint on the roughly 40 percent of Southeast Asia cell tonnage historically routed through non-cooperative or non-responsive channels.
Two structural features of the finals matter more than the specific margin movements. The first is that Commerce did not modify the preliminary scope on the fourth-country transshipment analysis. The India, Indonesia, and Laos rulings still cover cells produced in those three countries from wafers of any origin, which keeps the Chinese wafer content inside the operative scope of the case. The second is that Commerce affirmed the preliminary de minimis findings on the two Indonesian respondents that petitioners had contested during the case brief window, keeping those two producers outside the AD order at zero cash-deposit rate on the AD side while remaining inside the CVD order at the July 6 finals rates.
The combined cash-deposit stack
The mechanics of the combined stack matter for delivered cost. Cash deposits on any entry after the July 4 effective date are collected at the sum of the AD rate and the CVD rate applicable to the specific producer-country combination on the entry paperwork. Two illustrative points on the curve read as follows. A named India producer at 22 percent AD and 16 percent CVD carries a combined 38 percent cash-deposit rate on Monday-forward entries. A named Indonesia producer at 41 percent AD and 39 percent CVD carries a combined 80 percent rate. Non-cooperative entries at the top of each range now sit at 268 percent (Laos) plus the applicable CVD adverse rate, which puts the ceiling of the combined stack above 300 percent for the residual non-cooperative cohort.
The stack is a cash-deposit rate, not a final duty liability. Final liability will not be assessed until the first administrative review period closes, which puts the earliest final-liability date in Q3 or Q4 2027. That timing matters for the tax-credit insurance carriers underwriting the tariff-passthrough riders that were added to the specialty book on July 8. The carriers are pricing the passthrough exposure against a two-year window in which the final liability could tighten or widen relative to the cash-deposit rate. The specific direction the carriers priced through Monday afternoon is that the deposit rate is a reasonable proxy for the final liability inside a 5 to 10 percentage-point band, which is where the insurance quotes on the tariff-passthrough rider are landing.
Transferability desks moved tighter, not wider
The two transferability desks that had been widening on cost-incurred paper through Thursday and Friday moved 3 to 5 basis points tighter on cost-incurred paper Monday afternoon after the AD publication. The tightening was not a reaction to the AD margins themselves, which came in inside the range the desks had been pricing to since Tuesday. It was a reaction to the removal of the pricing tail on the fixed-stack question. Cost-incurred paper on EPAs with Southeast Asia cell exposure was carrying an implicit tariff-uncertainty spread that priced roughly 5 basis points wider than the underlying cost-incurred spread. That spread compressed Monday.
The third transferability desk, which had held the single-price convention through Friday, moved to a two-tier quote by Monday’s close at a 15 to 25 basis point split. The move was smaller than the split the other two desks are quoting, and the desk is still routing modest volume, but the single-price convention is now off the transferability tape. All three transferability desks quoted a two-tier convention on Tuesday’s Monday close-out sheets, which is a structural change on the primary transferability book that the pre-deadline market had not been running.
Tax-equity primary held the single-price convention on quoting through Monday’s close. The market opens Tuesday with the AD stack fixed, the CVD stack fixed, and the transferability book on a unanimous two-tier convention. The pre-syndication marks on the two funds preparing the July 20 to July 24 opening syndication tightened 2 to 4 basis points Monday afternoon on the underlying paper. Neither fund adjusted the pathway split on the pre-marketing sheet, which means the syndication desk is still preparing to open on a single-price convention. The pricing convention on July 20 is now the only question left open on the primary side.
The CIT calendar
The AD publication opens the 30-day summons window and the 60-day complaint window at the Court of International Trade running in parallel with the CVD windows that started July 6. The AD summons window closes August 12. The AD complaint window closes September 11. Settlement discussions between US petitioners and the six named foreign producers with the largest share of the pre-deadline import volume historically move most sharply inside the 30 to 90 day window following finals. That window opens Monday and runs through mid-October, with the CVD-side settlement window running one week ahead of the AD-side settlement window on the same calendar.
The two producers most likely to enter substantive settlement negotiations inside the AD window are the named Indonesian producer at 41 percent AD and the named Indian producer at 44 percent AD, both of which have downstream module-assembly operations in the Malaysia and Vietnam facilities that fall inside the FEOC bright line under IRS Notice 2026-15. Settlement math for both producers involves a suspension agreement structure that trades cash-deposit relief for a minimum-price mechanism or a quantitative restraint. Neither producer has filed a request for administrative review, which means the earliest suspension-agreement window opens inside the 30-day CIT summons calendar rather than after the first administrative review.
What the same week resolves
Monday’s AD finals resolved the first of the three pricing questions that were open at Friday’s close. The delivered cost curve on the 216 to 240 GW DC safe-harbored pool is now sitting under a fixed combined AD-plus-CVD stack. The transferability desks priced to the release into Monday’s close and moved to a unanimous two-tier convention on the primary book. The tax-equity primary market is holding the single-price convention through one more session before the pre-syndication marks on the July 20 opening syndication go to the buy-side desk. The July 20 to 24 window will resolve the second question. The September Treasury guidance window on the post-vacatur cost-incurred pathway carries the third.
The specific input to watch Tuesday is the pre-syndication mark on the July 20 opening, which is the last dated input on the primary tax-equity book before the syndication opens. If the mark closes Tuesday with a two-tier pathway split, the Q3 origination cycle prints the two-tier convention in the first week of the quarter and the primary standoff closes. If the mark closes Tuesday on a single-price convention, the standoff extends into the syndication window and the buy-side reaction on July 20 becomes the operative pricing event.